They voted for the pastor and didn't coalesce around the Mormon. This is a surprise?
They care more about social issues than economics. They're evangelicals... this is a surprise?
Other thoughts:
- Never count out the appeal of optimism. The two candidates who won the caucus, Barack Obama and Mike Huckabee, play to optimism in personality, not to fear. Rudy Giuliani's new apocalypse advertisement could backfire, especially now that Iran's nuclear program has moved off center stage as an issue. Don't underestimate how much that recent intelligence estimate on Iran and progress in Iraq have hurt Giuliani's central argument for electability. People want to turn the page. They don't want to think about 9/11 anymore than they want to revisit the Clinton era's scandals.
- People want someone who makes them feel safe, yes, but they also want to feel good about their country. Reagan did both. Neither Obama nor Huckabee makes me feel safe. But they've got the optimism part down. Don't underestimate how tired people are of thinking of terrorists, even though it's legitimate fear.
- Note to the MSM: When you trash a Republican candidate, Republican voters like that person more. While you were laughing at Huckabee for playing a negative ad to reporters, he was thinking: "Please keep laughing at me. Thanks!"
- Note to Hillary: You're stuck. Your instinct, as always, will be to nuke Obama with negativity. But he may very well be the one candidate you can't go negative on. When you do go negative on Obama, it just reinforces why people don't like you. If you are going to take the shot, you better have more than his kindergarten essays or middle name.
- Note to MSM: You played up what you thought was a Huckabee gaffe right before the caucus vote, while largely ignoring the real last-minute gaffe - Hillary's outright ignorance on Pakistan. And you think you don't have a double standard? Can you imagine if Bush had said this? You'd all be talking about how dumb he was for days.
- In the last two presidential elections, people voted for the guy they'd want to have a beer with. No one wants to have a beer with Hillary. Mitt Romney doesn't even drink beer. In all seriousness, likability matters.
- Don't count Giuliani out. I think he could see a resurgence. I'm not convinced that Huckabee can play as well elsewhere (the 40% evangelical thing again), especially as more details come out about his ethics and tax issues on the national stage. Then again, are voters concerned about ethics really going to turn to Giuliani? Still, Giuliani-Obama: Quite an experience differential there. Even Huckabee-Obama? One looks like the Dad. The other looks like the Kid. Obama looks REALLY young compared to any of the Republicans. I suppose that might be a plus in some corners, but it highlights the experience gap. McCain-Obama? Grandpa.
- The Huckabee candidacy is all wrong for the general election. He's right on all of the issues that won't play to independents and conservative Democrats (the social ones), and he's wrong on all of the issues that do. The opposite is true of Giuliani.
- Some people think Edwards is a loser because he didn't come in second by much. I disagree. He's a winner because Hillary Clinton was a VERY big loser who came in third. As Obama comes under increasing scrutiny, people may start to increasingly question his toughness and electability. Who does that leave?.
- Hillary's completely lost the aura of invincibility. The defining moment: The drivers' licenses for illegal aliens debate pandering. It wasn't solely the power of the immigration issue that mattered there. It was that her pandering highlighted people's central fear of her: That she stands for nothing. What does she stand for again? It used to be: I'm the one who can get elected. Without that, what then?
- The candidates who seem to believe in something, even if many people disagree with them, did well.
- I also think people have Clinton fatigue. Think about the Clinton era, quickly. What do you feel? I feel exhausted. Who wants to revisit that feeling? The Bush presidency has been exhausting too. People are really tired of the negativity. And so I return to the Optimism Factor.
- Somewhere Tommy Thompson is still muttering, This Was Supposed To Be Me.
- In 5 of the last 8 Iowa caucus votes, the Democratic victor was the Democratic nominee. The exceptions: Bill Clinton in 1992 (he'll try to draw the parallel to his wife but since she's running with the aura of an incumbent and as a well-known political figure, it doesn't really apply); Dukakis in 1988; and Carter in 1976.
- In 6 of the last 8 Iowa caucus votes, the Republican victor was the Republican nominee. The exceptions: George H. W. Bush in 1988 and Ronald Reagan in 1980.
